The current air freight market, especially international freight, is showing a trend of "hot" development. International freight rates have risen sharply, and my country's air freight prices have always been at a high level. It is reported that the air cargo price from Shanghai to North America in November this year was as high as US$12.58/kg, +62.53% year-on-year. In addition, according to TAC air cargo price data, on November 12, 2021, Shanghai-North America and Shanghai-Europe air cargo prices were as high as US$12.58/kg and US$7.76/kg respectively. 62.53% and +40.07%. Meanwhile, the air cargo prices of Hong Kong-North America and Hong Kong-Europe were 11.22 USD/kg and 7.8 USD/kg respectively, which were +7.57% and +13.54% week-on-week, and +52.65% and +32.43% year-on-year respectively.
What are the reasons behind the rising air cargo prices? Xiong Wei, an expert on the Civil Aviation Resources Network, believes that this year's continued high price of international air cargo is the result of a combination of many factors, but the core is still caused by the tension between supply and demand. First of all, not only air freight, but also the soaring cross-border logistics costs this year, including shipping, have jointly pushed up logistics costs. On Sino-US routes, it has become the norm that shipping containers are hard to find. At present, the US government has required some ports on the west coast to ensure 24-hour operation, but there are still a large number of ships squeezed, and shipping capacity continues to operate at full capacity. In such a general environment, air cargo is naturally rising. Second, starting from autumn every year, it is the hottest period in the consumer goods market for Thanksgiving and Christmas at the end of the year. This seasonal consumer demand has further pushed up air cargo prices. Finally, coupled with the short-term failure of passenger routes to recover, all shipping pressures are concentrated on pure cargo aircraft. In this context, the short-term maintenance of air cargo at a high level should continue for some time.
Wang Jiangmin, an expert on the Civil Aviation Resources Network, said that since the epidemic, the international air cargo market has also been hot for a while, and the cargo is mainly anti-epidemic. However, with the recovery of other transportation vehicles, air cargo has fallen. However, due to the spread of the epidemic in Europe, North America and other places, it also affects land transportation and terminal operations, and air cargo has a better market. In particular, the holiday market near the end of the year has contributed to the popularity of the air cargo market. Of course, in addition to the above-mentioned reasons, the surge in freight prices is also related to the recent rise in international oil prices.
The current development status of my country's air cargo?
Despite being affected by the epidemic last year, my country's civil air cargo and mail transportation volume was 6.766 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%. However, this year's air cargo performance in my country is very impressive, and the recovery momentum is good. As of October this year, my country's entire industry has completed a total of 6.06 million tons of cargo and mail transportation, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. In addition, my country's civil aviation cargo turnover has begun to rebound. As of January-September this year, a total of 20.61 billion ton-kilometers have been achieved, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%.
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Figure: 2015-2021 October 2015-2021 my country Civil Aviation Cargo and Mail Transportation Volume Trend Chart Mapping: Civil Aviation Resources Network
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Figure: 2015-2021 September my country Civil Aviation Cargo and Mail Turnover Trend Chart Mapping: Civil Aviation Resources Network
However, according to public information, from the perspective of fleet size alone, as of the beginning of this year, my country has only 185 all-cargo aircrafts with a total load capacity of about 8,903 tons, while the United States has about 1,125 all-cargo aircrafts with a total load capacity of about 79,906 tons. Transportation capacity is only 11% in the United States. The volume of all-cargo aircraft in China's air cargo is only 30%, which is lower than the global average. In addition, my country's aviation driver team mainly uses narrow-body aircraft and short- and medium-distance domestic routes. However, the cargo carrying capacity of the belly cabin of passenger aircraft is far less than that of all-cargo aircraft, and it is difficult to match the high value-added air transport demand such as electronic products. In addition, comparing the air freight ton-kilometer income of China and the United States in recent years, the freight volume and price of the United States are also ahead of my country and the freight rate is more stable.
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Figure: As of the first half of 2021, the basic situation of some domestic all-cargo aircraft companies is tabulated: Civil Aviation Resources Network
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Figure: 2015-2020 China and the United States air cargo revenue comparison chart: Civil Aviation Resources Network
In addition, compared with the United States, due to the advantageous support of the fifth and seventh freedom rights (the fifth freedom rights allow air cargo companies to stop and load and unload cargo in various countries, the seventh freedom rights can build their own cargo hubs in overseas countries. ), logistics giants such as FedEx, UPS, DHL, etc. have established large-scale hub cargo stations in my country, Europe and other countries, enabling a better layout of international freight network hubs.
However, in recent years, relevant national aviation logistics support policies have been promulgated frequently. For example, last year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration jointly issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Development of Air Cargo Facilities". In addition, according to the "National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline" issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council in February this year, it was proposed that by 2035, the state The total scale of the physical line network of the comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network is about 700,000 kilometers (excluding the overseas section of the international land route, air and sea routes, and postal routes). The construction of my country's logistics network system will usher in new opportunities. In addition, with the accelerated implementation of the three major domestic airlines' aviation logistics mixed reforms in recent years, it will be more conducive to the formation of a more complete aviation logistics system, and it will also help mark the vigorous development of air cargo by airlines and logistics companies in various countries.
Will the high air cargo prices in my country become normal? What is the future development trend of air cargo? A reporter from the Civil Aviation Resources Network interviewed a number of senior experts in the civil aviation industry to express relevant views:
Zhao Wei, a senior civil aviation industry expert and a professor at the Civil Aviation Management College of China, believes that under the epidemic, all global freight transport has grown against the trend, including rail, sea and air freight. Because of international trade and port operation efficiency factors, freight rates have increased significantly this year. This is the result of shortage of stimulus factors. In the long run, freight rates will fall. International air cargo naturally reaps the double dividend of cargo and freight. The focus of air cargo is all-cargo aircraft, and the mainstream is also all-cargo aircraft. This is the shortcoming of China's civil aviation cargo. The development of China's civil aviation cargo all-cargo aircraft and the development of passenger-to-cargo conversion are huge. Freight prices are closely related to international trade and will not continue to maintain high prices in the future. In fact, freight rates have already begun to fall.
In addition, an unnamed aviation logistics industry expert said: The overall global air cargo demand has not increased fundamentally, but regional supply and demand has shuffled. The global economy has been affected by the new crown epidemic and the US trade hegemony, and the overall demand for air cargo has been suppressed. However, the demand for air cargo by medicine and advanced manufacturing is still increasing. ASEAN and others need to bring increment in recovery. Inadequate prevention and control of the epidemic in Europe and the United States has caused shortages of dockers and truck drivers, resulting in port congestion and container shipping blockages, which has caused part of the freight with time-sensitive demand to turn to air freight. From a long-term development perspective, the consumer Internet and industrial Internet under the digital economy require more efficient and precise logistics guarantees. Air transportation in long-distance transportation will inevitably increase. However, due to the impact of the epidemic in the short and medium term and geopolitical frictions, the air cargo market still faces many Uncertain risk. In addition, it can be foreseen that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, my country’s smart civil aviation construction will be vigorously promoted as a main line of development in the industry. This aspect is definitely getting more and more attention, but there is a process for specific realization, and the better development of my country’s air cargo companies requires Self-controllable subjects need to be cultivated slowly.
Qi Qi, a senior civil aviation industry expert and associate professor of Guangzhou Civil Aviation Vocational and Technical College, expressed the following: The new variant of the virus has limited impact on the air cargo market. First of all, countries with epidemic prevention materials have basically established their own production capacity, especially those with large populations. Second, the impact of the epidemic in the past two years has reconstructed the global industrial chain and supply chain system, and the increase in air cargo demand has basically stabilized. Finally, air cargo capacity continues to increase, and passenger-to-cargo delivery will continue in the next 2-3 years, and the supply of air cargo capacity will continue to increase. The three factors are superimposed, and it is expected that the kinetic energy of the global increase in air cargo prices in the second round will be limited.
Wang Jiangmin, a senior expert on the Civil Aviation Resources Network, believes that: for the future trend of the international air cargo market, in addition to European and American airlines that have a relatively stable market position, there are also many airlines that are still optimistic about the opportunities in the future cargo market, such as the aviation giants in the Middle East. , There are also some low-cost airlines that did not originally do cargo, but continue to modify some passenger planes into cargo planes, or use passenger planes to transport goods. Of course, this also contains a lot of self-rescue component: instead of stopping the aircraft, it is better to temporarily invest part of the capacity in the cargo market to make up for the loss. It is undeniable that in the case of repeated epidemics, such an operation can be prepared with both hands and seize every market opportunity. Now my country’s cargo airlines have undergone many adjustments and restructurings, and have achieved rapid development during the epidemic. It is this epidemic that has put domestic airlines to the test and also sees the gaps, such as those with Amazon and FedEx. , DHL and UPS and other large aviation logistics companies. Continue to vigorously promote the construction of informatization, networking and intelligence, and strive to gain more market share in the high value-added freight market.