Airbus predicts that in the next 20 years, the demand for the air transportation market will gradually shift from the growth of the fleet to the trend of accelerating the retirement of older and less fuel-efficient aircraft. The global demand for new passenger and cargo aircraft will reach approximately 39,000, of which 15,250 An old aircraft used to replace decommissioned aircraft. Therefore, by 2040, most of the civil aircraft in operation will be the latest generation models, and the current proportion is about 13%. The carbon dioxide emission efficiency of the world's civil aircraft fleet will be greatly improved. The economic benefits of the aviation industry surpass the industry itself, contributing about 4% of global annual GDP, and maintaining about 90 million jobs worldwide.
Although air passenger traffic has failed to grow during the COVID-19 pandemic in the past two years, its resilience has already appeared. Driven by the development of the global economy and business, including tourism, it is expected to resume an annual growth rate of 3.9% every year. The number of middle-class people most likely to fly by plane will increase by 2 billion, accounting for 63% of the world’s population. The fastest-growing traffic volume will be in Asia, where China's domestic market will become the largest market.
The demand for new aircraft includes approximately 29,700 small aircraft, such as the A220 and A320 series; approximately 5,300 medium-sized aircraft, such as the ultra-long-range A321XLR and A330neo. In the large aircraft market covered by the A350, it is estimated that about 4,000 new aircraft will need to be delivered by 2040.
The development of e-commerce has promoted the demand for freight. Express freight and general freight drive the freight market. Express freight is expected to grow by 4.7% annually, while general freight, which accounts for about 75% of the freight market, is expected to grow at 2.7%. In total, about 2,440 freighters will be needed in the next 20 years, of which 880 will be new freighters.
At the same time, increasingly efficient aircraft operations worldwide have also driven the demand for civil aviation services-including maintenance, training, upgrades, flight operations, dismantling and recycling. The growth in this area is returning to the level predicted by Airbus before the epidemic, with a total value of approximately US$4.8 trillion in the next 20 years. Although the service market will decline by about 20% during 2020-2025 affected by the epidemic, the market is rebounding. In the next 20 years, there will be more than 550,000 new pilots and more than 710,000 new high-tech personnel. Aircraft maintenance remains the primary business in the service sector, but flight, ground operations and sustainable services will also grow significantly.
“As the economy and air transportation mature, demand comes more from the replacement of old aircraft rather than the growth of new aircraft. Replacing old aircraft is the most important driver of today’s decarbonization efforts. The world needs more sustainable flight, and The launch of most modern aircraft will achieve this goal in the short term," said Scherer, Airbus’s chief commercial officer and head of Airbus’s international business. "The use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to drive these new and efficient aircraft is the next important thing. Means. We are proud that all our models-A220, A320neo series, A330neo and A350-have been certified to use 50% mixed sustainable aviation fuel to fly, and we plan to achieve 100% by 2030 Sustainable aviation fuel flight-after 2035, we will make ZEROe aircraft a reality."
Since 1990, the global aviation industry's carbon dioxide emissions have fallen by 53%, which shows that the efficiency of the global aviation industry has been greatly improved. Compared with the previous generation of aircraft, the CO2 emission efficiency of the Airbus product series has increased by at least 20%. Airbus continues to innovate, develop products, increase efficiency, and adapt to the market to support the air transport industry to achieve the goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.