According to foreign media reports, Embraer is considering launching E190 and E195 passenger-to-cargo conversion projects in 2022.
Embraer said at the Dubai Airshow that (E190/E195 level) freighters have great market demand and it is expected that airlines will order 700 freighters of this level in the next 20 years.
Embraer has not yet officially decided whether to start the project. Once the project starts, it will take 24 months of research and development time, and it is expected to be put on the market in 2024.
The E190/E195 passenger-to-cargo models are expected to carry 12-14 tons of cargo and have a range of 2000 nautical miles. It can replace the 737-300 freighter with similar operating capacity and is about to be fully decommissioned, as well as the 737-200, DC-9 and other old models that are about to be decommissioned. Compared with these models, Embraer's passenger-to-cargo aircraft has advantages in cost and technological advancement.
Data shows that there are currently more than 700 E190/E195 aircraft in operation and parking/storage around the world, and there is ample supply of second mobile phones. And starting from 2022, there will be a large number of E190/E195 aircraft reaching 15 years of age. By then, the price of second-hand aircraft will be very suitable for conversion into cargo aircraft.
The shortage of global air cargo capacity caused by the epidemic has promoted huge cargo demand. Especially in the Chinese market, as the development of e-commerce promotes the growth of time-sensitive packages, the demand for cold chains brought about by consumption upgrades, and the upgrading of industries promotes the growth of demand for the aviation supply chain. The construction of multiple domestic air cargo hubs will also promote air cargo to cover the sinking market of second- and third-tier cities. The short-term and long-term prospects of air cargo are promising. In the first three quarters of 2021, the entire industry completed 5.456 million tons of cargo and mail transportation, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, which has exceeded the level of 2019.
Faced with market demand, aircraft manufacturers’ new cargo aircraft development plans are heating up, and at the same time the passenger-to-cargo modification market is booming. Cirium data shows that in 2021, the number of passenger-to-cargo modification orders announced globally has exceeded 160, which is much higher than the 102 in 2020, and the reserve order volume has been pushed to more than 330. In the first half of 2021, 57 passenger planes will be converted into cargo planes, which is close to the level of 2020 for the whole year-70 planes, and it is expected that the number of conversions for the whole year of 2021 may double. In addition, it is expected that there will be an additional 160 passenger-to-cargo conversion orders in 2022.
//
At present, the number of all-cargo aircrafts of mainland Chinese airlines accounts for less than 5% of the total transport fleet, which is a serious shortage. At the same time, the all-cargo fleet is dominated by wide-body aircraft, including 747/757/777/A330, etc. Freighters mainly focus on the international air cargo market, and the domestic air cargo market is dominated by Boeing 737-300 freighters.
However, the age of the 737-300 freighter is generally too high, and it is expected that it will gradually begin to retire in the next 5-10 years. However, there is no suitable alternative model on the market, so there will be gaps and shortages in the supply of small and medium-sized cargo aircraft market. If Embraer's passenger-to-cargo project can be started, it may be able to make up for the lack of market supply.